. . . but I really hope I am. Here is my prediction for how the Democrats are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this November.
Let me preface with a little context. When I voted in the California primary, I was undecided until that very morning. I made up my mind in the shower. What matters to me is a win in November. I like both Obama and Clinton. I think they are both good choices. Clinton might be a better president, but Obama is inspirational and has the potential to heal rifts that Clinton might exacerbate. But that’s not why I voted for Obama. Ultimately, I voted for him because I realized that “old” people, like me, would come out in November to vote for whichever of the 2 was the Democratic candidate. But the young vote that Obama has so invigorated – they would probably only come out if he were the candidate. So, I went with the possibility of greater Democratic turnout and cast my ballot.
And now for the promised prediction:
It will be close, but Barack Obama will get to the convention with more delegates and a slightly larger popular vote than Hillary Clinton, but he will not have the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination.
The Super Delegates will tilt the nomination in Clinton’s favor. While Clinton supporters might still be willing to vote for Obama if the roles were reversed (we just have to get that win), young, inspired Obama supporters will be disenchanted and disillusioned by what they see (rightfully, in my opinion) as dirty pool. They’ll be pissed off and won’t come out to vote for Clinton.
And we will thereby be left with a Republican president for at least another 4 years.
While searching for an authoritative explanation of Super Delegates to link to for this entry, I came across a good summary in an L.A. Times editorial from January. Interestingly, Spivak has reached the same conclusion although he doesn’t name the specific candidates.
Please, could someone comfort me and tell me it will all be okay.
I’m afraid that you may be right. I plan to vote for whichever Democrat is nominated in November. However, on primary day I voted Republican and for McCain so that if he wins, at least I won’t have the dry heaves for four years.
sigh….unfortunately I am afraid of the same thing- at least the same outcome if not the same route. I was struck by this fear while listening to McCain ‘try’ to give a casual speech. Dust has more charisma, not to mention that he did not actually say anything…